Jun 9, 2017

Missing out on the Emerging Market Rally? Think Twice before jumping on


China is Recovering! Emerging Market Equities Soars!

You may have read similar headlines in the past few weeks and may be tempted to jump onto the Emerging Market bandwagon to reap the returns. Afterall, Emerging Market equities have soared 18% this year and the trend seems to be unstoppable. Popular news channel are optimistic about the China reforms and Asia is where all the growth is after all. 

For those market watcher, you will get a feeling of deja vu.

The reason behind, this trend of Emerging Market out-performance seems to be the recurring pattern for the past few years in what is a possibly region rotation by global money managers.

What is a Region Rotation?
It is the rebalancing of global equities which spans across US, Europe and Emerging Markets whereby money managers sell off the regions that have done well and is rich in valuation and buy into regions which have unperformed within a global portfolio of stocks. The trend in the past few years have been present and we can observe from the relative performance of US equities as compared to the Emerging Markets equities.

What usually happens is that Emerging Markets tend to perform well in the 1st half of the year, only to see its performance disappoint in the later half of the year. Here is an interesting comparison of the half-yearly performance since 2010.


What is even more interesting to note is that the trend is broken during 2013 when the Emerging Market suffers from "Taper Tantrum" when the US Central bank started to roll back on their Quantitative Program. During 2011, 2012 when the EU Debt Crisis is at its peak, investors also actively avoided Emerging Market even though the source of the crisis come from Europe. It seems like whenever there is a crisis, investors pull money out from Emerging Market first, not caring if the crisis does not originate from Emerging Markets nor the high growth prospect of Emerging Market.  

Investors who are observing this trend can come to 2 conclusion:
- Emerging Market tend to underperform after a period of outperformance.
- When there is a high level of global risk. Investors sell Emerging Market and scramble into "safer" US Equities.
- Under these two assumption, investing in US equities seems to have a better long term risk/return ratio for this economic cycle.


So will US Equities out perform Emerging Market as we move into the later half of the year for 2017?

There is no crystal ball we can use, but it seems like the Big Boys are itching to take their bets off the table with such a fat profit sitting in the middle of the table and move back into the US Stock Market. Than again, the US stock market valuation is considered expensive right now and the possibility of a correction is getting higher on a daily basis and when things start to get ugly in US, investors will probably sell off Emerging Market first with no questions asked.

It seems to me that the conventional wisdom of Emerging Market being high risk/ high returns is breaking down in this market cycle. Emerging market seems to have taken on the characteristic of "high risk/low returns" when compared to the US Stock Market in the last 7 years. 

Similar Trends in USD
Similar to the trend we see in the Emerging Market vs US Equities, we can see similar trends in the USD. Typically, USD will weaken against Emerging Market currencies from the start of the year and will strengthen into the end of the year and will probably end at a higher level as compare to 2016 thanks to the relatively faster monetary tightening by the US central bank as compared to the rest of the world. As currency flow is a good indication of global money flow, we can see the pattern of the fund rotation occurring again base on the currency market whereby US equities tend to perform better at the later part of the year, similar to the strength of the USD. 

So if you are considering jumping into the soaring Emerging Market Equities at this moment of time, maybe it will be good to think twice. Perhaps it is a good time to look west, whereby there is both potential capital gains in currency and equities return. 

34 comments:

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      Read it carefully!!
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      We kindly URGE you to not respond without have read the entire text. Those who mail without have read everything, ask questions that are answered here!!

      WARNING:
      MOST HACKERS YOU SEE HERE ARE FAKES
      AND INCONGUROUS!!.
      It tears me up when we receive bitter emails for Jobs with complains from most clients with hacking issues about past SCAMs by uncertified fake hackers like most you see here, which is disappointingly inadequate, leaving their mess for us to deal with eventually (WE DON'T MEAN TO BRAG ABOUT THAT).

      HOW WOULD YOU KNOW??

      You won't know until you fall a Victim but can be attentive to potential danger, error or harm if you take note of these:

      1, you see uncertified email accounts carrying numberings like
      "iamhacklord1232@(gmail,yahoo or hotmail.com"
      pls flee from them, BIG SCAMMERS.
      They take your money and never do your job!!

      2, you see posts like "do you need to spy on spouse?"
      All fake! , just a way to lure you toward getting ripped OFF!.

      3, posting fake testimonies and comments to trick you into feeling save and secured.
      Pls endeavour to ignore!!

      ◾VERY IMPORTANT◾

      For years now, We've helped organisations secure data base, so many sites has been hacked for different reasons of Job kinds.
      "CLEAR CRIMINAL RECORDS" & "iPhone HACK" of
      and in short timing hacked petty cyber sites accounts like Skype, Fb, WhatsApp,Tinder,Twitter!!, FLIPPED MONEY, LOAD CCs and vice versa but these are significant experiences a good and effectively recognized organisation
      must firmly ascertain.

      ◾OUR "AIMS" HERE◾
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      2◾ to screen in real hackers (gurus only) in need of job with or without a degree, to speed up the availability of time given to for Job contracts.!!

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      write us on:
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  26. ◾ "PROTOCOL SHIELDERS" ◾
    Hello,

    I am COREY RODRIGUEZ by name, THE CEO of protocol & cyber-sheild hackers.
    In this message, we will explain how you can almost avoid SCAMMERS and stay safe, plus how our organisation works.

    Read it carefully!!
    Its reading will not take more than 10mins.

    We kindly URGE you to not respond without have read the entire text. Those who mail without have read everything, ask questions that are answered here!!

    WARNING:
    MOST HACKERS YOU SEE HERE ARE FAKES
    AND INCONGUROUS!!.
    It tears me up when we receive bitter emails for Jobs with complains from most clients with hacking issues about past SCAMs by uncertified fake hackers like most you see here, which is disappointingly inadequate, leaving their mess for us to deal with eventually (WE DON'T MEAN TO BRAG ABOUT THAT).

    HOW WOULD YOU KNOW??

    You won't know until you fall a Victim but can be attentive to potential danger, error or harm if you take note of these:

    1, you see uncertified email accounts carrying numberings like
    "iamhacklord1232@(gmail,yahoo or hotmail.com"
    pls flee from them, BIG SCAMMERS.
    They take your money and never do your job!!

    2, you see posts like "do you need to spy on spouse?"
    All fake! , just a way to lure you toward getting ripped OFF!.

    3, posting fake testimonies and comments to trick you into feeling save and secured.
    Pls endeavour to ignore!!

    ◾VERY IMPORTANT◾

    For years now, We've helped organisations secure data base, so many sites has been hacked for different reasons of Job kinds.
    "CLEAR CRIMINAL RECORDS" & "iPhone HACK" of
    and in short timing hacked petty cyber sites accounts like Skype, Fb, WhatsApp,Tinder,Twitter!!, FLIPPED MONEY, LOAD CCs and vice versa but these are significant experiences a good and effectively recognized organisation
    must firmly ascertain.

    ◾OUR "AIMS" HERE◾
    Are:
    1◾to assign a qualified agent of specific rank to particularly any sort of cyber issues you intend dealing with in short and accurate timing.

    2◾ to screen in real hackers (gurus only) in need of job with or without a degree, to speed up the availability of time given to for Job contracts.!!

    Thus an online binary decoding exam will be set for those who seeks employment under the teams Establishment.

    write us on:
    ◾Protocolhacks@gmail.com or
    ◾Cybershieldnotch@gmail.com
    ◾Cybershieldnotch@protonmail.com,

    COREY ROD,
    SIGNED...!
    Thank you!!!

    ReplyDelete
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  28. I didn’t believe it was possible to alter the system to change grades but I summoned courage and decided to surf for hackers online then I stumbled on MAELSTROM1212@GMAIL.COM who’s got terrific reviews of jobs well done. I gave him my school’s URL, my login ID and my proposed grades. I was all panicky and to say I almost had an heart attack during the course of the hack is no understatement. After 72 hours I got the best news of the year yet, my grades were changed and they weren’t flagged. I am not particularly proud of this act as I am 17 with a one year old son with just a little time to study as I should. Thank you for coming through for me, I owe it to you MAELSTROM1212@GMAIL.COM. That’s my review.
    For the record, I didn’t make this post with my original names.

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  29. Hackinempire@gmail.com
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